NWS Forecast Discussion
945
FXUS63 KMPX 012004
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
304 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Early April Winter Storm: Mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow
tonight through Thursday. Plan for a hazardous, potentially
dangerous Thursday morning commute due to icy roads.
- Headline Changes: Winter Storm Warning expanded across central
MN and portions of western WI. An Ice Storm Warning has been
issued for Eau Claire and Chippewa WI.
- Friday into Saturday: Another round of accumulating snow possible
across west-central MN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026
April Winter Storm: It`s a cool and breezy start to April across the
region, with mid level clouds on the increase. MPX radar
imagery shows a swath of radar echoes increasing across
southwestern MN, though dry air in the lowest 10k feet of the
column will limit much in the way of precipitation from reaching
the surface in the near term. That said, we have observed a few
reports of drizzle across southern MN and anticipate this trend
to increase through the evening. The early stages of the
incoming winter storm system can be seen on GOES water vapor
imagery, which captures a broad region of ascent over the
central Plains. An upper-wave crossing the Rockies will become
negatively tilted, spawning cyclogenesis lee of the Rockies over
eastern CO/western KS tonight. The ~990s mb surface low is
progged to track northeast through central IA towards Madison WI
by Thursday evening. Light precipitation will overspread the
region this evening and will become both heavier and more
widespread as isentropic ascent increases ahead of the
developing surface low. As is the case with many Spring winter
storm systems, the advection of a mid-level warm nose will
support an extremely complex p-type scenario and the transition
zone of the mixed p-types is forecast to bisect the forecast
area. As such, we anticipate a p-type gradient will setup from
north to south across the forecast area. It remains rather
challenging to lock into a "clear-cut" line between p-types, but
trends support the best chance for more snow across north-central
MN, a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain along and near the
I-94 corridor in central MN/western WI, and then mainly rain
(and perhaps a rumble of thunder!) along I-90 in southern MN. A
very generalized summary of forecast soundings across the band
of mixed p-types at ~12z Thursday reveal a warm nose between
5-7k feet and a relatively deep sub-freezing layer beneath the
warm nose. Deeper analysis suggests that the warm nose may be a
bit more shallow across our MN counties, which may work to limit
the high end freezing rain scenario, but support an impactful
amount of sleet. On the flip side, soundings across western WI
(EAU in particular) reveal a deeper warm nose/more shallow
lowest ~5k feet owing to WAA, such that freezing rain will
likely be the predominate p-type. Our latest forecast grids have
tried to blend these two ideas together, which supports
0.1-0.2" of ice across MN/portions of our western WI counties
and the best chance of exceeding 0.25" of ice farther east into
WI (Eau Claire/Chippewa counties). Frozen p-type is forecast to
transition to rain along and south of I-94 by midday as WAA
continues. The mixed precipitation line is forecast to lift
north into central MN into Thursday afternoon. Communities along
and north of of a line from Swift to Isanti counties will see
more snow than mixed precipitation and latest forecast
accumulations are on the order of 2-4 inches. The storm system
will depart to the northeast heading into Thursday evening.
Daytime heating and warm advection should promote travel
improvements through the afternoon across the Winter Storm/Ice
Storm locales, however slick spots will remain possible (which
will also be the case across central MN due to accumulating
snow).
The complexity of this forecast features a number of potential
failure modes for each respective p-type within the transition zone.
Marginal ground temperatures, precipitation rates, the slower
timing of the heavier QPF in tandem with a less favorable
diurnal cycle after daybreak are just a few of the challenges
associated with this storm system. Bottom line is whether it`s
freezing rain, sleet/slush, or a combination of both p-types,
the morning commute is likely to be significantly impacted.
Headline Changes: We have focused our headline changes around the
Thursday morning commute, which is expected to be the period of
greatest travel impacts. By putting the sounding analysis into
practice, we have opted to expand the Winter Storm Warning both
north a tier of counties and west to the MN River. The combination
of freezing rain and sleet falling within a band of heavier
precipitation rates will support hazardous, potentially dangerous
travel due to icy roads. In addition, we have upgraded Eau Claire &
Chippewa WI to an Ice Storm Warning, where confidence is highest in
freezing rain as the predominate p-type and the potential for
accretions to exceed 0.25" during the morning. The combination of
icing and gusty winds (up to 35 mph) may further complicate the
impacts (isolated power outages, for example). No changes were made
to the Winter Weather Advisory on either side of the Winter Storm
Warning (which addresses the accumulating snow potential across
central MN), while communities along I-90 remain headline free.
Storm System #2 (Friday into Saturday): A trailing Pacific
influenced bowling bowl upper-low is forecast to translate across
the northern Plains Friday into Saturday. Recent forecast trends
support a slight northerly track to the upper low set to advance
across central MN. This places the the heaviest precipitation axis
(in this case heavy snow) generally to the northwest of the forecast
area. We`ll need to keep a close eye on the track for what may be a
close call with near-warning level snow amounts in Douglas/Todd
counties, as represented by the latest NBM. We are not planning to
issue a Winter Storm Watch across the northern portion of the
forecast area at this time given the latest forecast trends and
after collaborating with neighboring offices. However, it`s likely
that we`ll at least need a Winter Weather Advisory across
western/central MN Friday into Saturday for at least a few inches of
accumulating snow. To add some context to snow amounts, the latest
forecast data suggests ~40-50 percent chance of exceeding 2" along
and northwest of a line from Madison-St. Cloud-Hinckley. These
probabilities jump to ~70-80 percent in Morris and Alexandria. More
details to come, but folks with weekend travel plans to the
northwest of the forecast area should anticipate significant
impacts.
We`ll watch the track of a clipper-type wave Sunday into Monday, but
latest trends support most of the precipitation falling across
northern MN. High pressure builds early next week, followed by the
return of precipitation chances by mid-week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 113 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026
An absolute mess of a system currently over the 4-corners region
has its sites on the MPX area for tonight into Thursday
afternoon. Models have slowed down some how quickly the wave
ejects out across the Plains, so we`ve started to delay precip
onset some. As for that precip, the RAP/ECMWF show a couple of
bursts of higher rates, one with an initial WAA burst from
roughly 6z to 9z, then a lull around sunrise, then the main axis
of precipitation moving trough from 13z to 20z. This puts the
heaviest precip with this system largely in the daylight hours
Thursday, so that does bring in some uncertainty to with whether
this ends up more of a cold rain or freezing rain/sleet event.
As for the fzra/pl question, forecast soundings show a deep and
cold sub-freezing layer below the warm nose, so we may also be
doing a heavier pl/fzra mix as opposed to straight fzra as these
soundings are right on the cusp of being fzra or sleet soundings.
Also, wherever the edge of the warm nose sets up, there will
likely be a burst of heavy snow just north of the warm nose edge
in the morning. At the moment, STC looks to be most in line for
that burst of heavy snow, but this is likely to move over the
next 12-20 hours.
KMSP...Lots of focus was put on rates with this update, in
particular looking for any potential windows where hourly liquid
rates could exceed 0.1", which pushes us from the light to
moderate intensity for liquid precipitation. RAP and ECMWF both
show the late morning into the early afternoon being the period
with the heaviest precipitation, with rates likely right at that
0.1" per hour threshold. During this time, we`ll also be warming
up, so it could either be -fzra or just -ra, all it will take is
a wiggle of one or two degrees F with the temperature. For now,
we erred on the side of the more impactful forecast, so did
maintain a period of moderate freezing rain, but limited that
intensity 15z-18z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MVFR chc IFR. -RASN in evening. Wind NE 10-15 kts.
SAT...MVFR/IFR cigs. -RASN in morning. Wind NW 10-20G30 kts.
SUN...Chc MVFR cigs. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT
Thursday for Benton-Chippewa-Douglas-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-
Lac Qui Parle-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Pope-Stearns-
Stevens-Swift-Todd-Yellow Medicine.
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CDT
Thursday for Anoka-Blue Earth-Chisago-Isanti-Sherburne-
Steele-Waseca-Watonwan-Wright.
Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to noon CDT
Thursday for Brown-Carver-Dakota-Goodhue-Hennepin-Le
Sueur-McLeod-Nicollet-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-
Sibley-Washington.
WI...Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to noon CDT
Thursday for Barron-Dunn-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.
Ice Storm Warning from midnight tonight to noon CDT Thursday
for Chippewa-Eau Claire.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Strus
AVIATION...MPG
NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion